Sit on the fence...???..Still doing it?

Ruble did provide an opportunity! I really suspect the discussion that Modiji and Putin had! Felt great about following the most coveted virtue - Patience! Last week was a wild one! When the market was down the second day, everyone said every stock is undervalued... :) I really doubt those so called analysts. Anyhow, some are really mouthwatering, some are tempting but not yet ready to jump in, based on last week's wild run.

Mouth watering - Anant Raj, Escorts
Tempting, but you may feel acidic for sometime - Unitech ( Enter below 15), Firstsource, NOCIL
staple - Motherson Sumi, SBI

Tired??

Too many double tops in the past month, but the post consolidation of second top is dragging.
Below are post double tops

1. ONGC - Already languishing around the support level of 365. If it goes below with big volumes, enjoy the downfall! Go short at any price above 370+. Hmm, for investors....Keep a watch on any positive news and Sell. It is not even holding on to the news for a day. You can always enter at a lower price, if you go purely on chart patterns.

2. Motherson Sumi - Huge Potential, but the chart offers a lot of shorting options. The mood is weakening. Has come down a little from the second top. Cautious ones can clear the counter.

There is one probable long cup and handle :) crompton Greaves...Can clearly go long. I am waiting for a breakout.

Trading Opp.
Patel Engineering - Strong support at early hundreds. Can enter at any price below 108.

Playing it My Way

Probably his legal advisers would have asked him not to say much on match fixing that brought Indian Cricket to its knees..., and there were some other issues that Sachin did not dig deep into. He could have exposed everything, but with a look at his current stature that he being a dignified member of the Upper House and adopting a Village, he has more to do. Like his Father said to him "I'd like you to be remembered as a better Human than a better Cricketer". The Book is so simple and smooth that I could get the real meaning without any assumptions, and so bland that I slept when I was half way through the Book :p
The book is a playback of all his important innings. The early cricketing days were interesting. Sachin claims that he's a naughty kid with some illustrations :) Well, we don't consider those as naughty and those are pretty boring..He should have grown with us (he he). I thought Kambli and he were thick friends during the early days, and expected a lot, considering the rapo of Kambli. He got only two or three pages, alas!
His own version of Sharjah ODIs was surprising. He ducked behind Gilly so that we won't be swept by the sandstorm, while the cricketing world depicted him as a crusader standing tall in the storm and winning the match. Sure he was a crusader in Sharjah, but that's really a good one :).
I was able to latch on till the epic innings by VVS and Rahul, but skipped lot of pages and read only those that meant a lot to him.
A Bible for his fans, and a good book on a collector's shelf, and a good first half and final read.

Rosy Days

It's always and its consistent, that even a most pessimistic cautious investor would throw his guards away and jump into the pool. Analysts call it a multi-year Bull run. I've tried my best to go contra, but :(. So, I am sailing the tide.
Here are some winners this Quarter, which means they have more steam left.
NOCIL
Texmo pipes
Bayer cropscience
India Gelatine
Motherson Sumi ( So many Fund managers are behind it. May give a second thought in another 2 Qs. As of now, it is pretty strong and good, though the it is struggling to cross the resistance level of 440)

Some party Bloopers(who knows.. results are yet to come for some)
Unitech
suzlon
Crompton Greaves ( Have sought Shareholders' vote for 100% FII, may rise a bit. Exit on every rise)
ONGC

Good old Tech M

It has become a darling of the market, but made me grumble over my decision since Modi became our PM. I still stand by my words,that Q4'14 and Q1'15 results were cooked nice, and that is how the market behaves, always prefering tasty to healthy. Modi wave made a mockery of my calculations, and now Tech M is in 2400 odd levels, up 600 from my exit level. No hard feelings, as I found another Gem in the name of motherson sumi, entered @240. What a kill! The announcement of its entry into the F&O segment certainly made my day today. Up almost 10% intraday! Leaving behind the euphoria, the fundamentals are rock solid; A leading auto ancillaries producer with an average of 20-25% growth in eps every Q, which reflects the. That's almost 1.65*investment in FY'14!! The charts speak more, 45 degree NE movement indicating a strong funda. A guidance of 15-20% topline growth and 40% RoCE on FY'15 makes it more attractive!

FYI: TechM is still cheap purely based on valuation alone. You can go long on TechM till the Modi-wave subsides(Analysts speak of a multi-year Bull run :p) or the fair value of share price is met, whichever is earlier!

Less risky bet : TVS motor company(strong growth in sales)
behavioural bet : ICICI (approved stock split, with a ratio of 1:5)

There are some others blinking on my radar such as NOCIL, KNR constructions, NHPC.. Will write up later.

New find : Deepak Fertilizers and PetroChemicals

There is always a feeling that the layman investor always gets the base of the cream :(. Anyways, I found Deepak Fertilizers and PetroChemicals a little late. A solid Sequential Growth of 41.2% in terms of PAT and 103% YoY growth, keeps me wondering how did I miss this!

Chart looks great. A minor resistance around 120+ levels, and breakout at 130+. The stock price is hanging onto the minor resistance levels. I am not the one who worries about minor dips on hitting minor resistances. The stock has got all the numbers PAT, EPS, a good PE ratio, a better Operating profit margin ratio, but it is not a dividend payer. Who cares, as long as it delivers good numbers!

Dissecting Tech Mahindra Q3 FY'14

The book is cooked well.

These are the special recipes

1. A writeback of 226.69 Cr. from tax provisions carried by the erstwhile Satyam. The total provisions amount to 498.92 Cr, and suddenly the board decides that 272.23 Cr. is enough to be carried further as tax provisions. Why now?

2. A writeback of 120 Cr. on provisions for contingencies carried by erstwhile Satyam.Why now?

Euphemistic Answer : Professional Advice.
Reality : Q3 is not that good.

Here is the dissection

Operational Income : 4898.55 Cr - A sequential growth of 4.57%

Profit from Ops : 996.68 Cr. - 0.78% sequential growth

Forex Loss : 141.44 Cr. - Loss widens big time sequentially as against 26.06 Cr
This creates a hole in EBITDA : 927.37 Cr. down by 7.5% :) Now you know the reason for the special recipe!!

Add the 120 Cr. as a writeback/exceptional income. Please remember that this is only notional, but smells good :) !

And then the tax is 253.05 Cr. Now we have the writeback on tax provisions of around 226.69 Cr. This is the fizz. All empty calories! And this aided in pumping up the results straight at 1009.82 Cr.

And the actual PAT is 663.13 Cr (+- 20 Cr), which is actually down by 7.7%

But who really cares about what is inside?

Disclosure : I am long on TechM.