Tech Mahindra MSAT combined earnings estimate

Monday would be my portfolio re-alignment and I may spread my distribution on Hindalco, Anant Raj, Tata Steel, Exide and FTIL. It all depends on how well Tech Mahindra Q1 earnings align with my estimates on monday.


Let`s do a small artihmetic. Our Estimation would be a net income of 3500 C +- 100 Cr. Employee costs would be around 1700 Cr. Merger expenses and other expenses would be around 900 Cr. EBITDA would be around 800-900 Cr.

Now comes the Q2 expectation :
The aim of the merger is to prune other expenses and employee costs.
We`d all like to see how TechM manages to prune those expenses. We`d like to see a reduction of 500 Cr. on employee costs and around 200 Cr. on other expenses, maximise the EBITDA to be around 1500 Cr.

Prognosis : combined Q1 would probably be a sum-up of both TechM and MSAT statements, with additional merger ops. expenses. We can expect the Net around 600 Cr. +- 50 Cr.

Stupid comparison : This would be around 2.5x Q1 FY`13. I`d really like this to be the news

Reality would be that the combined entity had successfully managed to stay afloat just as what Infy has done this Quarter.

We can see the effect on Eq2 and Eq3 and the numbers can be manipulated to show the world an optimistic sequential growth .... hahaha.. This`ll hold good, even if the combined entity stays dry without any new deals.

Bottomline is that we don`t have to worry for another two Q`s, we can see our investment grow with a slope of atleast 25 and if TechM manages to pull some hefty deals, we are really on cloud nine :)

p.s
Let`s look at HCL. The numbers are the same as the combined Entity`s. Voila!!! We directly compete with HCL!! The only aberration is that TechM is almost void on new telecom contracts. We may even see MSAT as the sole contributer for the earnings.

FTIL contr call cont'd

Bingo! It worked!! Obviously FTIL @150-160 was really really attractive, the pivot point fell at 150+. Anything above 150+ was a sure bull on sight! Though I couldn't enter within the band, went long @164 on NSE. There you saw the sudden spurt to 210!!! That was the position to short... Shorted at 206, now at a cmp of 196... A kinda hedging with positive bias on buy to make the trade a safer one, considering the fluctuations today.

This is the reason for the spurt in price

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-news/nsel-proposes-settlement-says-members-will-pay-rs-2181cr_930281.html#toptag

Financial Technologies contra call

What a game today! Short, shorter and the shortest :)Unbelievable volume of almost 29 million with the cmp moving up and down by 10%..Wow!... FTIL on valuation alone looks attractive... As usual FMC sat on the sidelines when the innocent(blimey!!) investors were blown. Gonna wait on FTIL for another two sessions, and get a valid pivot. I am getting a strong feeling that I may go long at any price below 140.

And What an idea sirji!!! When a company posts a Q1 PAT which went up 98% Y-o-Y and up more than 50% sequentially, you'll always expect its price to go up like hell...huh! What did I say? Ranbaxy followed suit, and closed greener,,sanity prevails

FTIL and idea are on my watchlist.. and some more are..will come by later on'em

Tech Mahindra on 5th August

Intraday levels for 5th August

Today's close : 1233.25

Resistance Levels : 1280.55, 1313.925, 1352.85
Support Levels : 1208.25, 1169.325, 1135.95

Inorganic growth assisting TechM in its fluidic price movements, though I don't see TechM crossing 1300 before the AGM (12th August).
Recent deals with Schahin Petroleo and a LATAM banking deal ( both SAP ERP) worth multi-million dollars may assist TechM erstwhile MSAT :) further.

Q1 FY'13 results'll show the acquired inorganic ma(o)ss. Q2 FY'14 should say the facts on both bottom and top.. ha ha who knows, TechM may gather more moss, polaris acquisition is in pipeline.. let's see

Neethaane en ponvasantham....To be or not to be...?

Didn't expect an hour at BBQ Nation would bring down sweet ol' memories...Two live singles, one from Bryan Adams and the other from "The Eagles", and I still regret missing Bryan Adams live at Bangalore!!!The guitarist didn't hit my nerve, but yeah, there was a tingle..Chords were right on the spot... Could have asked for more....I didn't... Folks alienated me when I applauded his "Hotel California". I'd say one sentence to the guitarist..."Wrong place Mate..!"


And!.. This post is about the new movie on the block, by Gautham Menon. My wife being a fan of him, and my gratitude for the eternal "Vinnai Thaandi varuvaaya", almost pushed me to watch it, and I did, even after a thumb-down by Sophia.


The movie is a cosine wave as Samantha gives it a head start. Santhanam gives it a complete phase shift.. Could have been better, if he'd stepped out. An experimental conversational flick by Gautham Menon..I'd say he has the guts to try it here...And why Gautham and Ilayaraja? The combo'd never work and I was right..except...The Maestro went viral in BGM..Last twenty minutes were awesome. Gautham tried to get the story around an egotistical pair...I am bad at story telling(business Idea...Two day training on Story telling session), my son'd vouch for it :) Get a big screen ticket and watch it, or you know what to do!!

Nenjukulle...goes viral again and again!!!!

I always felt bad on ARR moving out of Tamil Music. I'll never regret it from hereon.. This is a gem... and the voice being rendered by Shakthisree Gopalan, adds the much needed rustiness to the lyrics..Awesome!!!! Hold on!.... Shakthisree is a Guindy campus Alumnus!!!! You should have guessed it right...She graduated from SAP,2008 passed out! Why is it always SAP?!!!.. தமிழில் பாடல் வரிகள்.... கருத்துப் பலகையில்.. எழுத்துப்பிழையென் கூற்று.

what is this trendline?

7am arivu Review

The story of a prominent hero of our city of atlantis- "Kumari kandam"..Murugadoss bit more than he could chew... Ithula oru comedy ennanna Kumari kandam http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kumari_Kandam pathi solrathukku Innoru submerged periodic city atlantis pathi thaan solla vendi irukku. matha padi waste padam. One thing makes me proud. Bodhi dharmar belongs to third tamil sangam...i.e., when we were recuperating from the end of second Ice age.. Apdina Athukku munnadi ellam how civilized we would have been..When the other races were yet to find their primal senses, we were equipped well with seventh sense!!!! Kudos to Murugadoss and team for reminding this to us!!!! This movie could have been a cult....Alas!!!marappom mannippom..

THE OTHER INDIA

Yeah, Gandhi bought(pleaded, infact... and Phirangi found no use of us, so he left) us freedom, well I can't say freedom, it is independance....It was BG tilak who did start it. The following excerpt from firstpost triggers a similar chord, the notes are different here, "freedom from netas". I cant metaphorise Baba Ramdev to BG Tilak, but Anna Hazare can be. Tired middle class wants no more Bofor, 2G, Ayodhya, Gujarat massacre, kashmir bullshit, ....but India as a better living place



It’s easy to be cynical about Baba Ramdev. This is the godman who giggles. He suggests doing pranayam and shut his nose after the Pakistani terrorists attacked Mumbai. It’s a little harder to be cynical about the thousands who have gathered in his name, the families that are parked on the ground, heads resting on a battered carry-all, damp towels and undershirts draped on the bamboo fencing.



It is, instead, chastening. An old man, in his seventies, with thick discoloured glasses, walks carefully down the aisle, holding onto to the bamboo fence next to him. He’s from Indore, he tells me. He has eleven children, two of whom have died. He’s come because he wants to make India a heaven. “Don’t you?” he asks me and hands me a photocopied pamphlet about the economic fallout of corruption. Instantly five people gather around us, anxious to get his pamphlets. The man beams. “One at a time,” he says.



One at a time. That’s strangely the most un-Indian thing about the whole affair. One at a time to fill your water bottle. One at a time to get your pamphlet. Standing in the hot sun, in a long line slow line, Indians do what Indians do. They try to wangle their way into the front of the line. A retired man, who now runs a school for girls, admonishes them.



“One at a time,” he says. “Go stand in the line. We are all standing in the sun. Brother, what kind of anusilan ke sipahi (soldier of discipline) will you be if you break in like this? We are not here to watch some movie.”





For most of us in facebook, it is "THE OTHER INDIA". Yes, the other india wants someone who can lead them, which netas and saffrons make use of..... and I write about this in a suddenly spiked nationalism, on FACEBOOK, and I go off to browse the internet about "how to become a PMP certified leader" :)

My Bike Ride

Planning to Write a miniature MotorCycle Diary :), well dont ever compare this with the real Motorcycle Diaries...

Plan is to ride on my bike to Ooty via Bangalore, Mysore, ...

Well, let us see..how for I stick to my plan...

Yayy!!!!!

I realized that the purpose of writing is to inflate weak ideas, obscure poor reasoning and inhibit clarity. With a little practice, writing can be an intimidating and impenetrable fog

Yayy!!!!!

I realized that the purpose of writing is to inflate weak ideas, obscure poor reasoning and inhibit clarity. With a little practice, writing can be an intimidating and impenetrable fog

Flash Player plugin on Fedora 12

Kernel:
[root@Samuel ~]# uname -a
Linux Samuel 2.6.31.5-127.fc12.i686 #1 SMP Sat Nov 7 21:41:45 EST 2009 i686 athlon i386 GNU/Linux

To Download the RPM:

[root@Samuel ~]# rpm -ivh http://linuxdownload.adobe.com/adobe-release/adobe-release-i386-1.0-1.noarch.rpm

To Download the Key Code:

[root@Samuel ~]# su -c 'rpm --import /etc/pki/rpm-gpg/RPM-GPG-KEY-adobe-linux'

To Install the Package

[root@Samuel ~]# su -c 'yum install flash-plugin nspluginwrapper.x86_64 \
> nspluginwrapper.i686 alsa-plugins-pulseaudio.i686 \libcurl.i686'

To enable the plugin, exit browser and start again.

VLC on Fedora 12

For normal steps, I followed the link
http://www.videolan.org/vlc/download-fedora.html

Encountered problem wth repo list in fedora 12...
Updated the following repo files
/etc/fedora.repo
/etc/fedora-updates.repo
with removing the comments of lines starting with baseurl & commenting lines strating with mirrorlist.

Back Again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Always figuring out ways to amuse my two months old boy, he laughs at me when I try to scare him out.... lot of things to be written... hoping a better script :)

Few pictures of my new cam

These pictures came out as a surprise given my level of expertise with photography.
Camera :- Canon SX10 IS

Canon SX10 IS

Guess what, This is chennai

Daddy's Recession

Watch this, A Daddy explains an economic meltdown to his son in his own funny way

Curious Face of Benjamin Button

From cradle to the grave , born as on old man, growing towards Youth, enacted by a single man.... Really curious, the face of older Brad Pitt is completely Digital....

for all those noobs who know much of Slum Dog Millionare due to oversold Indian slums, this is a movie which got its share of oscars, really intriguing...

Predictable Irrationality over Chapatis!!!

Being adept at myself being a guinea pig for my wifes dangerous culinary experimentations which might lead me almost to an irresistible instinct to disapparate, let me explain the concept of predictable irrationality. Predictable irrationality is

When you face a situation of eating neolithic chapatis, you are bound by your reactional mind to shy away from them, then you look at your wife, who looks at you, which says it all-How much pain she had endured in making those chapatis really neolithic, and you are bound to eat them, even your rational mind prefers other alternatives by doing a Cost benefit analysis on getting a mouth ache or breaking some of your teeth, considering the even more cost of soothing her.

Here is one more serious example:

When your company gives you gifts such as a company branded bag, even though you dont need it, you line up for the gift, which many of you think as completely rational, because you may think that the bag may come in handy some times later and refusing the bag may result in unfavourable opinion from your bosses or even your Peers.