Dissecting TCS Q2 FY'14 results

Again the forex gains played up heavily on TCS results by almost 25% of the Q2 standalone net. The irony and a sad fact. Ok, lets make some money! An exemplary result by beating the anal**ysts' estimations.

An operational Net of 5486 odd Cr. and an eps of 28.6 clearly makes TCS a much safer bet till the bubble bursts!

Considering the 3297 Cr of standalone operational Net last quarter as a base, the Q2 result firms the TCS position as nummer eins, numero uno in the IT sector.

The situation is so rosy for IT sector and this affirms my stand on TechM. I am expecting a scintillating performance by Anand Mahindra & Co and an interim dividend announcement on the D-Day (yet to be announced, and I hate this delay.


Certainly, it is a perfect foil for an aggressive intraday trader on thursday, and a much safer investment till next quarter...I feel this'll continue till the next election as our rulers are finding innovative ways to bring down the rupee value.

Disclosure: I don't have any holdings on TCS, as I feel the bubble got so big. I am waiting for the burst/leakage to enter.

Some more calls, a bit late!

Ya, there was a silent buildup in the real estate last two weeks, particularly Anant Raj( 41 to 51 in a week) and Unitec (16 to 19).

I may enter Anant Raj, as it has broken the resistance of 50 and was traded well above the 5 day moving average. I may sit on the fence of Unitec, and watch a while.

And TechM has proved my conviction. Will be riding on it till this year end. And the Q2 FY14 result, which may be tintillating, owing to the real muscle power of the combined(MSAT + TechM) Entity, and sadly to the forex gains.

I am disclosing one more entity from my watchlist, Alembic pharma..., has made a run from 130s to 170s. One can enter on correction below 150.
Pros : Strong fundamentals, clear balance sheet, and streamlined growth makes it a better prospect for a long term investment. Will follow up with stats on the same.

The handle is too long!!!

What a blasting opening! TechM breached 52 week highs quite comfortably and we see buy orders racing ahead of sell orders!! TechM is clearly on the hump of a chargin bull!!

The chart says it all.. A cup formation in 2008-2009, deep enough to absorb all the liquid that may fill into it, and followed by a long handle that stretches till early 2013!!! And MSAT merger with TechM last month triggered the momentum. First Goldman Sachs went bullish last week, and now Mr. Stanley signals to buy. I'd love to hear one more from CRISIL!...Let us see.. One thing is that the chart would have been recognised by even a kid, and I wonder why it took so long for'em to recognize it, may be the pending merger with MSAT would have kept them on the fence. Whatever, it is always fine when the portfolio looks dark green, though it may sound a little selfish when the rise in TechM is also aided by the tumbling Rupee!... Let us consider it in a positive way, a hedging tool against the tumbling Rupee, YEah!...

Other ideas, overseas... Vodafone may sell its 45% stake on verizon wireless and it looks for a price of 130 Billion dollars!
Log term bet.. is ..Alcatel Lucent! It is so cheap!... When China mobile gives the order to ALU for its light radio micro cellular network solution, who knows! I am yet to open my overseas trading account!

And in domestic, SBI is in buy territory, I may still wait for a price of 1475+.. It'll sure happen...

Me, Myself and TechM!!!

Three rode a roller coaster this week, particularly TechM.
And yes, Tata steel did more than survive, 27% up this week, after all it has some quality stuff.. Sure does Hindalco! Yet, I couldn't convince myself to divest TechM.. and here is the proof...almost 8% up today.

Though, I didn't get much out of the rise, I did protect my previous earnings.. The swing in TechM was so wide with a span of Rs.100 this week, owe it to the rupee slumber. TechM is my long, and I didn't want to book my profit now, so I did hedged trading this week. Maintained intraday shorts till today and held my longs firmly. I burnt myself badly yesterday. My predictions went wrong and my shorts got hit.

Held on to my longs today without intraday hedging, and that worked!! If it didn't I would have earned only for my broker and none for me!

And now, TechM is clearly in an unchartered territory, closed @ 1271.90, with a pending buy order at 1266.. and that was a 52 week high!! So, I may resume my hedging on monday after 11 AM.


I'll watch out TechM movements, and may sell 30% of my TechM holdings if the price crosses 1450.. Tata Steel is sure in the pipeline, and if there is a dip, will surely jump in.. and I am gonna sit on the fence of Banking Sector..SBI looks attractive below 1530..Let's see!

Dissecting Tech Mahindra MSAT combined earnings

TechM has delivered and the numbers hit the spot.

The net income of 3552.88 cr met my expectations of 3500 cr +- 100 cr (please refer my previous post), and Wow! almost on the spot!
Employee benefit expenses are 1677.92 cr almost met my expectations of 1700 cr. I can't believe it and Wow! again!
Merger, travel and other expenses are 1118.25 cr. and the number sadly exceeds my expectation of around 900 cr. This is an area of improvement.

And finally the standalone net is 598.87 cr!!! OMG! OMG! My expectations were 600 cr. with allowable deviation!

A pessimistic approach sees the Forex gain due to the rupee slumber and the other income ( may be interest from the MSAT cash reserves!), and if we negate that amount of 252.65 cr., we may fairly now! say that th combined entity has managed to stay afloat...

And from the consolidated result numbers, this Q's eps stands at 29.63 and is a better number!!! My conviction is stay put, if your risk capability is very low, yes!! Tata Steel has started showing some survival ability, it is quite risky to enter now, that was how MSAT happened to me.

And Hindalco results look promising, and the price looks attractive from valuation perspective!.. let's see tomorrow how both Tata steel and Hindalco react!!

Conviction is to use the spare money to enter Tata Steel/Hindalco... and I have none! I have to divest in TechM! Let me see tomorrow!
I'll dissect Tata Steel and Hindalco numbers only after the market reaction tomorrow.

Tech Mahindra MSAT combined earnings estimate

Monday would be my portfolio re-alignment and I may spread my distribution on Hindalco, Anant Raj, Tata Steel, Exide and FTIL. It all depends on how well Tech Mahindra Q1 earnings align with my estimates on monday.


Let`s do a small artihmetic. Our Estimation would be a net income of 3500 C +- 100 Cr. Employee costs would be around 1700 Cr. Merger expenses and other expenses would be around 900 Cr. EBITDA would be around 800-900 Cr.

Now comes the Q2 expectation :
The aim of the merger is to prune other expenses and employee costs.
We`d all like to see how TechM manages to prune those expenses. We`d like to see a reduction of 500 Cr. on employee costs and around 200 Cr. on other expenses, maximise the EBITDA to be around 1500 Cr.

Prognosis : combined Q1 would probably be a sum-up of both TechM and MSAT statements, with additional merger ops. expenses. We can expect the Net around 600 Cr. +- 50 Cr.

Stupid comparison : This would be around 2.5x Q1 FY`13. I`d really like this to be the news

Reality would be that the combined entity had successfully managed to stay afloat just as what Infy has done this Quarter.

We can see the effect on Eq2 and Eq3 and the numbers can be manipulated to show the world an optimistic sequential growth .... hahaha.. This`ll hold good, even if the combined entity stays dry without any new deals.

Bottomline is that we don`t have to worry for another two Q`s, we can see our investment grow with a slope of atleast 25 and if TechM manages to pull some hefty deals, we are really on cloud nine :)

p.s
Let`s look at HCL. The numbers are the same as the combined Entity`s. Voila!!! We directly compete with HCL!! The only aberration is that TechM is almost void on new telecom contracts. We may even see MSAT as the sole contributer for the earnings.

FTIL contr call cont'd

Bingo! It worked!! Obviously FTIL @150-160 was really really attractive, the pivot point fell at 150+. Anything above 150+ was a sure bull on sight! Though I couldn't enter within the band, went long @164 on NSE. There you saw the sudden spurt to 210!!! That was the position to short... Shorted at 206, now at a cmp of 196... A kinda hedging with positive bias on buy to make the trade a safer one, considering the fluctuations today.

This is the reason for the spurt in price

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-news/nsel-proposes-settlement-says-members-will-pay-rs-2181cr_930281.html#toptag

Financial Technologies contra call

What a game today! Short, shorter and the shortest :)Unbelievable volume of almost 29 million with the cmp moving up and down by 10%..Wow!... FTIL on valuation alone looks attractive... As usual FMC sat on the sidelines when the innocent(blimey!!) investors were blown. Gonna wait on FTIL for another two sessions, and get a valid pivot. I am getting a strong feeling that I may go long at any price below 140.

And What an idea sirji!!! When a company posts a Q1 PAT which went up 98% Y-o-Y and up more than 50% sequentially, you'll always expect its price to go up like hell...huh! What did I say? Ranbaxy followed suit, and closed greener,,sanity prevails

FTIL and idea are on my watchlist.. and some more are..will come by later on'em

Tech Mahindra on 5th August

Intraday levels for 5th August

Today's close : 1233.25

Resistance Levels : 1280.55, 1313.925, 1352.85
Support Levels : 1208.25, 1169.325, 1135.95

Inorganic growth assisting TechM in its fluidic price movements, though I don't see TechM crossing 1300 before the AGM (12th August).
Recent deals with Schahin Petroleo and a LATAM banking deal ( both SAP ERP) worth multi-million dollars may assist TechM erstwhile MSAT :) further.

Q1 FY'13 results'll show the acquired inorganic ma(o)ss. Q2 FY'14 should say the facts on both bottom and top.. ha ha who knows, TechM may gather more moss, polaris acquisition is in pipeline.. let's see

Neethaane en ponvasantham....To be or not to be...?

Didn't expect an hour at BBQ Nation would bring down sweet ol' memories...Two live singles, one from Bryan Adams and the other from "The Eagles", and I still regret missing Bryan Adams live at Bangalore!!!The guitarist didn't hit my nerve, but yeah, there was a tingle..Chords were right on the spot... Could have asked for more....I didn't... Folks alienated me when I applauded his "Hotel California". I'd say one sentence to the guitarist..."Wrong place Mate..!"


And!.. This post is about the new movie on the block, by Gautham Menon. My wife being a fan of him, and my gratitude for the eternal "Vinnai Thaandi varuvaaya", almost pushed me to watch it, and I did, even after a thumb-down by Sophia.


The movie is a cosine wave as Samantha gives it a head start. Santhanam gives it a complete phase shift.. Could have been better, if he'd stepped out. An experimental conversational flick by Gautham Menon..I'd say he has the guts to try it here...And why Gautham and Ilayaraja? The combo'd never work and I was right..except...The Maestro went viral in BGM..Last twenty minutes were awesome. Gautham tried to get the story around an egotistical pair...I am bad at story telling(business Idea...Two day training on Story telling session), my son'd vouch for it :) Get a big screen ticket and watch it, or you know what to do!!

Nenjukulle...goes viral again and again!!!!

I always felt bad on ARR moving out of Tamil Music. I'll never regret it from hereon.. This is a gem... and the voice being rendered by Shakthisree Gopalan, adds the much needed rustiness to the lyrics..Awesome!!!! Hold on!.... Shakthisree is a Guindy campus Alumnus!!!! You should have guessed it right...She graduated from SAP,2008 passed out! Why is it always SAP?!!!.. தமிழில் பாடல் வரிகள்.... கருத்துப் பலகையில்.. எழுத்துப்பிழையென் கூற்று.

what is this trendline?

7am arivu Review

The story of a prominent hero of our city of atlantis- "Kumari kandam"..Murugadoss bit more than he could chew... Ithula oru comedy ennanna Kumari kandam http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kumari_Kandam pathi solrathukku Innoru submerged periodic city atlantis pathi thaan solla vendi irukku. matha padi waste padam. One thing makes me proud. Bodhi dharmar belongs to third tamil sangam...i.e., when we were recuperating from the end of second Ice age.. Apdina Athukku munnadi ellam how civilized we would have been..When the other races were yet to find their primal senses, we were equipped well with seventh sense!!!! Kudos to Murugadoss and team for reminding this to us!!!! This movie could have been a cult....Alas!!!marappom mannippom..

THE OTHER INDIA

Yeah, Gandhi bought(pleaded, infact... and Phirangi found no use of us, so he left) us freedom, well I can't say freedom, it is independance....It was BG tilak who did start it. The following excerpt from firstpost triggers a similar chord, the notes are different here, "freedom from netas". I cant metaphorise Baba Ramdev to BG Tilak, but Anna Hazare can be. Tired middle class wants no more Bofor, 2G, Ayodhya, Gujarat massacre, kashmir bullshit, ....but India as a better living place



It’s easy to be cynical about Baba Ramdev. This is the godman who giggles. He suggests doing pranayam and shut his nose after the Pakistani terrorists attacked Mumbai. It’s a little harder to be cynical about the thousands who have gathered in his name, the families that are parked on the ground, heads resting on a battered carry-all, damp towels and undershirts draped on the bamboo fencing.



It is, instead, chastening. An old man, in his seventies, with thick discoloured glasses, walks carefully down the aisle, holding onto to the bamboo fence next to him. He’s from Indore, he tells me. He has eleven children, two of whom have died. He’s come because he wants to make India a heaven. “Don’t you?” he asks me and hands me a photocopied pamphlet about the economic fallout of corruption. Instantly five people gather around us, anxious to get his pamphlets. The man beams. “One at a time,” he says.



One at a time. That’s strangely the most un-Indian thing about the whole affair. One at a time to fill your water bottle. One at a time to get your pamphlet. Standing in the hot sun, in a long line slow line, Indians do what Indians do. They try to wangle their way into the front of the line. A retired man, who now runs a school for girls, admonishes them.



“One at a time,” he says. “Go stand in the line. We are all standing in the sun. Brother, what kind of anusilan ke sipahi (soldier of discipline) will you be if you break in like this? We are not here to watch some movie.”





For most of us in facebook, it is "THE OTHER INDIA". Yes, the other india wants someone who can lead them, which netas and saffrons make use of..... and I write about this in a suddenly spiked nationalism, on FACEBOOK, and I go off to browse the internet about "how to become a PMP certified leader" :)

My Bike Ride

Planning to Write a miniature MotorCycle Diary :), well dont ever compare this with the real Motorcycle Diaries...

Plan is to ride on my bike to Ooty via Bangalore, Mysore, ...

Well, let us see..how for I stick to my plan...

Yayy!!!!!

I realized that the purpose of writing is to inflate weak ideas, obscure poor reasoning and inhibit clarity. With a little practice, writing can be an intimidating and impenetrable fog

Yayy!!!!!

I realized that the purpose of writing is to inflate weak ideas, obscure poor reasoning and inhibit clarity. With a little practice, writing can be an intimidating and impenetrable fog

Flash Player plugin on Fedora 12

Kernel:
[root@Samuel ~]# uname -a
Linux Samuel 2.6.31.5-127.fc12.i686 #1 SMP Sat Nov 7 21:41:45 EST 2009 i686 athlon i386 GNU/Linux

To Download the RPM:

[root@Samuel ~]# rpm -ivh http://linuxdownload.adobe.com/adobe-release/adobe-release-i386-1.0-1.noarch.rpm

To Download the Key Code:

[root@Samuel ~]# su -c 'rpm --import /etc/pki/rpm-gpg/RPM-GPG-KEY-adobe-linux'

To Install the Package

[root@Samuel ~]# su -c 'yum install flash-plugin nspluginwrapper.x86_64 \
> nspluginwrapper.i686 alsa-plugins-pulseaudio.i686 \libcurl.i686'

To enable the plugin, exit browser and start again.

VLC on Fedora 12

For normal steps, I followed the link
http://www.videolan.org/vlc/download-fedora.html

Encountered problem wth repo list in fedora 12...
Updated the following repo files
/etc/fedora.repo
/etc/fedora-updates.repo
with removing the comments of lines starting with baseurl & commenting lines strating with mirrorlist.

Back Again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Always figuring out ways to amuse my two months old boy, he laughs at me when I try to scare him out.... lot of things to be written... hoping a better script :)