Rock steady! Roll and Roll!

A scintillating performance this week from my beloved stock TechM. Almost all analysts have come inline with their findings, that TechM is a Gem-in-making after MSAT merger. Up almost 4% yesterday and is already up 4% while I write this down. Two more Quarters with optimal results, should make Techm part of the biggies. I am still holding on to the stock, and will do for another two quarters.

Another news that made headlines is Pfizer+wyeth takeover, both are trading ex-dividend, after announcing a hefty special dividend.
You could watch pfizer, who is gonna be a heavy heavy weight after wyeth merger. I have thrown my crumbs on Pfizer at 1150s. Will wait for the official announcement to make a big entry.

Another stock worth notice is Helios & Mattheson.. Ran up quite a bit till 118. Now trading at 112. The management has announced interim dividend of Rs 5, and it would be trading ex-dividend on february. Strategy would be to accumulate on dips till mid of Jan. Short term traders can exit before ex-dividend. For longies, this is a very good stock worth investing. I am invested in it.

Grammatik lernen : perfekt

Perfekt:
********

Hilfsverb + .. + partizip II

Das Hilfsverb wird konjugiert und zeigt die Person an.
Das Partizip II ist unveränderlich und schließt den Satz ab.

Das Perfekt mit dem Hilfsverb "haben" bilden :

* Alle verben mit Akkusativ ergänzung.
S + Hilfsverb + O + partizip II

* Alle reflexive verben
S + Hilfsverb + relexive. pronomen + mittelfeld | partizip II

* alle Modalverben als Vollverb

Das Perfekt mit dem Hilfsverb "sein" bilden:

1 Change of location

Beispiele :
Unser zug ist heute mal wieder zu spät angekommen
Gestern sind wir mit dem auto nach Ulm gefahren

2. Change of state

Beispiel :
Ich bin heute Morgen sehr früh aufgestanden

Partizip II
***********

1. Regelmäßige verben

KOnjugation : Für regelmäßige Verben, bleibt das Stammwort

Regeln zum Partizip bilden :
ge + Stammverb + t

* trennbare verben : präfix + ge + Stammverb + t
präfix + ge + Stammverb + en

* untrennbare verben : präfix + Stammverb + t


2. Unregelmäßige verben

Konjugation : In Umlaut auf den Vokal der Stamm Wort
In Endungen an den Stamm Wort

Regeln zum Partizip bilden : Kompliziert
* unregelmäßige Verben: ge + Stammverb + en
ge + perfekt-Stamm + en

Über den Urlaub

Vokabelliste:

protestieren - to protest
abgestürzt - had crashed ( stamm : abstürzen - to crash)
Augenblick - instant, moment
geschrieben - written ( stamm : schreiben - to write)
heilige Dreifaltigkeit - Holy Trinity
getan - done ( stamm : tun - do)
gehalt - salary
gemästet - fattened ( stamm : mästen - fatten)
Aufenthalt - stay
ermöglichte - enabled
gefahren - Driven, took ( stamm : fahren - drive)
gebunden - bound ( stamm : binden - join, connect)
besucht - visited ( stamm : besuchen - visit)
angefangen - started ( stamm : anfangen - start)
gegangen - walked ( stamm : gang - walk, stride)
malerischen - scenic, picturesque
schneebedeckten - snowy
freitragende Brücke - Cantilever Bridge
fotografiert - photographed ( stamm : fotograpfieren - take photos)
gebrochen - broken ( stamm : brechen -- break)
angerufen - called ( stamm : anrufen -- call over phone)
versichert - insured ( stamm : ver-sicher-en - insure)
übersetzen - translate

Geschichte :

Mein laptop begann zu protestieren, and dann plötzlich ist es abgestürzt. Es tut weh, wenn mehrere Stunden harter Arbeit geht weg in einem Augenblick! Dann hatte ich um meine blog neu geschrieben! Schon gut!


Danke an die heilige Dreifaltigkeit( nicht die christlich, aber die beliebteste - Procrastination, Unaccountability and irresponsibility - tut mir leid :( Ich bin ausländer!), wurde meine Arbeit nicht getan, und Ich musste in Stuttgart für einen monat länger bleiben. Ich war glücklich, dass mein Gehalt wurde gemästet, aber..., noch einen monat, um meine Liebe zu sehen.

Mein längerer Aufenthalt ermöglichte mir, für eine weitere Tour zu planen mit meinen Freunden, die Neuschwanstein Burg zu besuchen.

Um 07:00, wir sind mit dem ICE-zug am HauptbahnHof gefahren. Nach eine Stunde hatten wir Ulm erreicht, als hatten wir einen anderen zug nach Füssen gebunden. Um 10:00, hatten wir einen anderen zug nach Füssen gebunden. So hatten wir zwei Stunden, um in Ulm verbringen.
Dort hatten wir das Albert Einstein Memorial und der Ulmer Münster besucht. Dann wir in den anderen zug nach Füssen angefangen.

Nach drei Stunden um 13:00, hatten wir Füssen erreicht. Wir konnten vom Bahnhof zum Schloss gegangen, aber wir waren sehr müde :(.
So, wir sind mit einen Bus um die Burg gefahren. Nach fünf Stunden mit dem zug, hatten wir unseren ziel erreicht!!!

Die Burg war sehr schön mit seinen malerischen Wasserfällen und schneebedeckten Alpen. Dann hatten wir die Marienbrücke hinter der Burg besucht. (Sie haben zu glauben, dass es sich um eine freitragende Brücke. Physik!!! Physik!!! Ja, im Land der Einstein!) Ich hatte das Schloss von der Marienbrücke fotographiert. Der Blick auf das Schloss von der Brücke war sehr schön.


Die Unfall :

Dann erreichten wir den Fuß der Wasserfälle. Ich begann klettern ein Fels und erreichte die Spitze. Meine Freunde hat ein Foto von mir über den Felsen. Dann kletterte ich den Felsen hinab, und das war nicht so einfach. Der Fels war so rutschig, und ich rutschte die Felsen. Ich wusste nicht, das würde mich 240 € kosten, wie der Untergang hatte mein ipod gebrochen.
Mein ipod war versichert, so hatte ich der Versicherung angerufen, um den Unfall zu melden.

Dann um 04.00, wir sind zurück zu Stuttgart begonnen.

Ich finde es ein wenig schwer zu übersetzen, ich bin Ausländer! Hier ist die Originalversion in englischer sprache.

Urfassung : http://deepuscandybox.blogspot.in/2006/11/god-damn-my-machine.html

Dissecting Q2 - FY'14 of Tata Steel

Not bad. Cons. Net sales at 36,369.64 Cr(7.3% growth YoY) with an eps of 8.98 ( Last year Q2 was negative, lets not compare this), makes Tata Steel an attractive turnaround story. The PAT at 916.77 cr can be mostly attributed to its Indian operations, and streamlined consolidation of its European operations. It has turned profitable from last quarter, and the Q2 result shows that the revenue is steady. This is quite a sign, and the market has recognized it two months ago. It has already run from the lows of 260, and we are now standing 100 Rs. up. The steam is building up, and the cyclical-trend, favouring the metals sector, should help it sustain above 400 comfortably by year end.

Quoting around 370 as I write, and one can enter on dips.

Overestimated a bit on TechM Q2 PAT

My estimations on TechM Q2 were bit above the topline, but the results were on track. The market reaction was splendid with a whopping Rs.100 up in a day.

I am upbeat on TechM, as now is the time to run fast. Can book partial profit around 1900 or the end of this year, whichever comes first.

And we have Alembic Pharma confidently marching ahead!... Find some dips to enter.

And I am in a dilemma on Ahmednagar Forgings. Booked profit at 99 last week. The tide is yet to lift it. WIll re-enter on next dip.


Findings : NALCO (Q2 rose 37 times the last year), Shalimar paints (pretty cheap), Suven Life sciences ( pretty cheap among the peers). Can go long.
I am invested in Shalimar paints. Will find dips to enter both NALCO and Suven.

Tech Mahindra Q2 Estimation and some other reco's

The following were the contracts signed during this period:

A five year term contract with UBS
A multi million dollar deal in Latin America with Schahin petro and one bank
A five year contract with BASE - Belgium
An outsourcing contract with Volvo

Recent:
Fulton school
Bosch

15% up in revenue is the bottomline
PAT should be kiss/breach the 10%

Let`s see, in three more hours

As I said in my previous post, Alembic Pharma continues its march up , quoting 210 as I write this, a whopping 70 Rs up from my reco. price.

And I have two more findings, an they are Dishman Pharma and Ahmednagar forgings. Their fundamentals are intact and I am relying on the cyclicals trend, to push'em up.

Hindalco, is still struggling in the range of 111-123, recommend to be a trader till the allegation on coal mine allocation against Birla cools off. I dont expect a resolution on the same so fast. So, ride on the trend..short at 123 and buy at 111, if both happens.

Dissecting TCS Q2 FY'14 results

Again the forex gains played up heavily on TCS results by almost 25% of the Q2 standalone net. The irony and a sad fact. Ok, lets make some money! An exemplary result by beating the anal**ysts' estimations.

An operational Net of 5486 odd Cr. and an eps of 28.6 clearly makes TCS a much safer bet till the bubble bursts!

Considering the 3297 Cr of standalone operational Net last quarter as a base, the Q2 result firms the TCS position as nummer eins, numero uno in the IT sector.

The situation is so rosy for IT sector and this affirms my stand on TechM. I am expecting a scintillating performance by Anand Mahindra & Co and an interim dividend announcement on the D-Day (yet to be announced, and I hate this delay.


Certainly, it is a perfect foil for an aggressive intraday trader on thursday, and a much safer investment till next quarter...I feel this'll continue till the next election as our rulers are finding innovative ways to bring down the rupee value.

Disclosure: I don't have any holdings on TCS, as I feel the bubble got so big. I am waiting for the burst/leakage to enter.

Some more calls, a bit late!

Ya, there was a silent buildup in the real estate last two weeks, particularly Anant Raj( 41 to 51 in a week) and Unitec (16 to 19).

I may enter Anant Raj, as it has broken the resistance of 50 and was traded well above the 5 day moving average. I may sit on the fence of Unitec, and watch a while.

And TechM has proved my conviction. Will be riding on it till this year end. And the Q2 FY14 result, which may be tintillating, owing to the real muscle power of the combined(MSAT + TechM) Entity, and sadly to the forex gains.

I am disclosing one more entity from my watchlist, Alembic pharma..., has made a run from 130s to 170s. One can enter on correction below 150.
Pros : Strong fundamentals, clear balance sheet, and streamlined growth makes it a better prospect for a long term investment. Will follow up with stats on the same.

The handle is too long!!!

What a blasting opening! TechM breached 52 week highs quite comfortably and we see buy orders racing ahead of sell orders!! TechM is clearly on the hump of a chargin bull!!

The chart says it all.. A cup formation in 2008-2009, deep enough to absorb all the liquid that may fill into it, and followed by a long handle that stretches till early 2013!!! And MSAT merger with TechM last month triggered the momentum. First Goldman Sachs went bullish last week, and now Mr. Stanley signals to buy. I'd love to hear one more from CRISIL!...Let us see.. One thing is that the chart would have been recognised by even a kid, and I wonder why it took so long for'em to recognize it, may be the pending merger with MSAT would have kept them on the fence. Whatever, it is always fine when the portfolio looks dark green, though it may sound a little selfish when the rise in TechM is also aided by the tumbling Rupee!... Let us consider it in a positive way, a hedging tool against the tumbling Rupee, YEah!...

Other ideas, overseas... Vodafone may sell its 45% stake on verizon wireless and it looks for a price of 130 Billion dollars!
Log term bet.. is ..Alcatel Lucent! It is so cheap!... When China mobile gives the order to ALU for its light radio micro cellular network solution, who knows! I am yet to open my overseas trading account!

And in domestic, SBI is in buy territory, I may still wait for a price of 1475+.. It'll sure happen...

Me, Myself and TechM!!!

Three rode a roller coaster this week, particularly TechM.
And yes, Tata steel did more than survive, 27% up this week, after all it has some quality stuff.. Sure does Hindalco! Yet, I couldn't convince myself to divest TechM.. and here is the proof...almost 8% up today.

Though, I didn't get much out of the rise, I did protect my previous earnings.. The swing in TechM was so wide with a span of Rs.100 this week, owe it to the rupee slumber. TechM is my long, and I didn't want to book my profit now, so I did hedged trading this week. Maintained intraday shorts till today and held my longs firmly. I burnt myself badly yesterday. My predictions went wrong and my shorts got hit.

Held on to my longs today without intraday hedging, and that worked!! If it didn't I would have earned only for my broker and none for me!

And now, TechM is clearly in an unchartered territory, closed @ 1271.90, with a pending buy order at 1266.. and that was a 52 week high!! So, I may resume my hedging on monday after 11 AM.


I'll watch out TechM movements, and may sell 30% of my TechM holdings if the price crosses 1450.. Tata Steel is sure in the pipeline, and if there is a dip, will surely jump in.. and I am gonna sit on the fence of Banking Sector..SBI looks attractive below 1530..Let's see!

Dissecting Tech Mahindra MSAT combined earnings

TechM has delivered and the numbers hit the spot.

The net income of 3552.88 cr met my expectations of 3500 cr +- 100 cr (please refer my previous post), and Wow! almost on the spot!
Employee benefit expenses are 1677.92 cr almost met my expectations of 1700 cr. I can't believe it and Wow! again!
Merger, travel and other expenses are 1118.25 cr. and the number sadly exceeds my expectation of around 900 cr. This is an area of improvement.

And finally the standalone net is 598.87 cr!!! OMG! OMG! My expectations were 600 cr. with allowable deviation!

A pessimistic approach sees the Forex gain due to the rupee slumber and the other income ( may be interest from the MSAT cash reserves!), and if we negate that amount of 252.65 cr., we may fairly now! say that th combined entity has managed to stay afloat...

And from the consolidated result numbers, this Q's eps stands at 29.63 and is a better number!!! My conviction is stay put, if your risk capability is very low, yes!! Tata Steel has started showing some survival ability, it is quite risky to enter now, that was how MSAT happened to me.

And Hindalco results look promising, and the price looks attractive from valuation perspective!.. let's see tomorrow how both Tata steel and Hindalco react!!

Conviction is to use the spare money to enter Tata Steel/Hindalco... and I have none! I have to divest in TechM! Let me see tomorrow!
I'll dissect Tata Steel and Hindalco numbers only after the market reaction tomorrow.

Tech Mahindra MSAT combined earnings estimate

Monday would be my portfolio re-alignment and I may spread my distribution on Hindalco, Anant Raj, Tata Steel, Exide and FTIL. It all depends on how well Tech Mahindra Q1 earnings align with my estimates on monday.


Let`s do a small artihmetic. Our Estimation would be a net income of 3500 C +- 100 Cr. Employee costs would be around 1700 Cr. Merger expenses and other expenses would be around 900 Cr. EBITDA would be around 800-900 Cr.

Now comes the Q2 expectation :
The aim of the merger is to prune other expenses and employee costs.
We`d all like to see how TechM manages to prune those expenses. We`d like to see a reduction of 500 Cr. on employee costs and around 200 Cr. on other expenses, maximise the EBITDA to be around 1500 Cr.

Prognosis : combined Q1 would probably be a sum-up of both TechM and MSAT statements, with additional merger ops. expenses. We can expect the Net around 600 Cr. +- 50 Cr.

Stupid comparison : This would be around 2.5x Q1 FY`13. I`d really like this to be the news

Reality would be that the combined entity had successfully managed to stay afloat just as what Infy has done this Quarter.

We can see the effect on Eq2 and Eq3 and the numbers can be manipulated to show the world an optimistic sequential growth .... hahaha.. This`ll hold good, even if the combined entity stays dry without any new deals.

Bottomline is that we don`t have to worry for another two Q`s, we can see our investment grow with a slope of atleast 25 and if TechM manages to pull some hefty deals, we are really on cloud nine :)

p.s
Let`s look at HCL. The numbers are the same as the combined Entity`s. Voila!!! We directly compete with HCL!! The only aberration is that TechM is almost void on new telecom contracts. We may even see MSAT as the sole contributer for the earnings.

FTIL contr call cont'd

Bingo! It worked!! Obviously FTIL @150-160 was really really attractive, the pivot point fell at 150+. Anything above 150+ was a sure bull on sight! Though I couldn't enter within the band, went long @164 on NSE. There you saw the sudden spurt to 210!!! That was the position to short... Shorted at 206, now at a cmp of 196... A kinda hedging with positive bias on buy to make the trade a safer one, considering the fluctuations today.

This is the reason for the spurt in price

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-news/nsel-proposes-settlement-says-members-will-pay-rs-2181cr_930281.html#toptag

Financial Technologies contra call

What a game today! Short, shorter and the shortest :)Unbelievable volume of almost 29 million with the cmp moving up and down by 10%..Wow!... FTIL on valuation alone looks attractive... As usual FMC sat on the sidelines when the innocent(blimey!!) investors were blown. Gonna wait on FTIL for another two sessions, and get a valid pivot. I am getting a strong feeling that I may go long at any price below 140.

And What an idea sirji!!! When a company posts a Q1 PAT which went up 98% Y-o-Y and up more than 50% sequentially, you'll always expect its price to go up like hell...huh! What did I say? Ranbaxy followed suit, and closed greener,,sanity prevails

FTIL and idea are on my watchlist.. and some more are..will come by later on'em

Tech Mahindra on 5th August

Intraday levels for 5th August

Today's close : 1233.25

Resistance Levels : 1280.55, 1313.925, 1352.85
Support Levels : 1208.25, 1169.325, 1135.95

Inorganic growth assisting TechM in its fluidic price movements, though I don't see TechM crossing 1300 before the AGM (12th August).
Recent deals with Schahin Petroleo and a LATAM banking deal ( both SAP ERP) worth multi-million dollars may assist TechM erstwhile MSAT :) further.

Q1 FY'13 results'll show the acquired inorganic ma(o)ss. Q2 FY'14 should say the facts on both bottom and top.. ha ha who knows, TechM may gather more moss, polaris acquisition is in pipeline.. let's see