DRL - an Interesting proposal on a high tide

My calculations are based on last 6 months moving trend of Dr. Reddy's and the recent news.

It has gone down below the 200 day moving average of 2800. And the news is that FDA has served 13 notices on inspecting it's production units in Srikakulam. Turned out that the notice wasn't that severe. FDA has asked just for an explanation of certain irregularities in the production.

The market reaction went bad as it coincides with the 200 day moving low.

I see a strong support @2600+ levels, if at all it goes there.

I still hold the target of 3200+ by next quarter

Other than that I don't see any major hiccups.

Flood relief work in chidambaram

Pradeep and Gang did a great job. Happy to join them.

We were able to narrow down some villages in and around chidambaram that still need some relief work.

Some snapshots

Sit on the fence...???..Still doing it?

Ruble did provide an opportunity! I really suspect the discussion that Modiji and Putin had! Felt great about following the most coveted virtue - Patience! Last week was a wild one! When the market was down the second day, everyone said every stock is undervalued... :) I really doubt those so called analysts. Anyhow, some are really mouthwatering, some are tempting but not yet ready to jump in, based on last week's wild run.

Mouth watering - Anant Raj, Escorts
Tempting, but you may feel acidic for sometime - Unitech ( Enter below 15), Firstsource, NOCIL
staple - Motherson Sumi, SBI

Tired??

Too many double tops in the past month, but the post consolidation of second top is dragging.
Below are post double tops

1. ONGC - Already languishing around the support level of 365. If it goes below with big volumes, enjoy the downfall! Go short at any price above 370+. Hmm, for investors....Keep a watch on any positive news and Sell. It is not even holding on to the news for a day. You can always enter at a lower price, if you go purely on chart patterns.

2. Motherson Sumi - Huge Potential, but the chart offers a lot of shorting options. The mood is weakening. Has come down a little from the second top. Cautious ones can clear the counter.

There is one probable long cup and handle :) crompton Greaves...Can clearly go long. I am waiting for a breakout.

Trading Opp.
Patel Engineering - Strong support at early hundreds. Can enter at any price below 108.

Playing it My Way

Probably his legal advisers would have asked him not to say much on match fixing that brought Indian Cricket to its knees..., and there were some other issues that Sachin did not dig deep into. He could have exposed everything, but with a look at his current stature that he being a dignified member of the Upper House and adopting a Village, he has more to do. Like his Father said to him "I'd like you to be remembered as a better Human than a better Cricketer". The Book is so simple and smooth that I could get the real meaning without any assumptions, and so bland that I slept when I was half way through the Book :p
The book is a playback of all his important innings. The early cricketing days were interesting. Sachin claims that he's a naughty kid with some illustrations :) Well, we don't consider those as naughty and those are pretty boring..He should have grown with us (he he). I thought Kambli and he were thick friends during the early days, and expected a lot, considering the rapo of Kambli. He got only two or three pages, alas!
His own version of Sharjah ODIs was surprising. He ducked behind Gilly so that we won't be swept by the sandstorm, while the cricketing world depicted him as a crusader standing tall in the storm and winning the match. Sure he was a crusader in Sharjah, but that's really a good one :).
I was able to latch on till the epic innings by VVS and Rahul, but skipped lot of pages and read only those that meant a lot to him.
A Bible for his fans, and a good book on a collector's shelf, and a good first half and final read.

Rosy Days

It's always and its consistent, that even a most pessimistic cautious investor would throw his guards away and jump into the pool. Analysts call it a multi-year Bull run. I've tried my best to go contra, but :(. So, I am sailing the tide.
Here are some winners this Quarter, which means they have more steam left.
NOCIL
Texmo pipes
Bayer cropscience
India Gelatine
Motherson Sumi ( So many Fund managers are behind it. May give a second thought in another 2 Qs. As of now, it is pretty strong and good, though the it is struggling to cross the resistance level of 440)

Some party Bloopers(who knows.. results are yet to come for some)
Unitech
suzlon
Crompton Greaves ( Have sought Shareholders' vote for 100% FII, may rise a bit. Exit on every rise)
ONGC

Good old Tech M

It has become a darling of the market, but made me grumble over my decision since Modi became our PM. I still stand by my words,that Q4'14 and Q1'15 results were cooked nice, and that is how the market behaves, always prefering tasty to healthy. Modi wave made a mockery of my calculations, and now Tech M is in 2400 odd levels, up 600 from my exit level. No hard feelings, as I found another Gem in the name of motherson sumi, entered @240. What a kill! The announcement of its entry into the F&O segment certainly made my day today. Up almost 10% intraday! Leaving behind the euphoria, the fundamentals are rock solid; A leading auto ancillaries producer with an average of 20-25% growth in eps every Q, which reflects the. That's almost 1.65*investment in FY'14!! The charts speak more, 45 degree NE movement indicating a strong funda. A guidance of 15-20% topline growth and 40% RoCE on FY'15 makes it more attractive!

FYI: TechM is still cheap purely based on valuation alone. You can go long on TechM till the Modi-wave subsides(Analysts speak of a multi-year Bull run :p) or the fair value of share price is met, whichever is earlier!

Less risky bet : TVS motor company(strong growth in sales)
behavioural bet : ICICI (approved stock split, with a ratio of 1:5)

There are some others blinking on my radar such as NOCIL, KNR constructions, NHPC.. Will write up later.

New find : Deepak Fertilizers and PetroChemicals

There is always a feeling that the layman investor always gets the base of the cream :(. Anyways, I found Deepak Fertilizers and PetroChemicals a little late. A solid Sequential Growth of 41.2% in terms of PAT and 103% YoY growth, keeps me wondering how did I miss this!

Chart looks great. A minor resistance around 120+ levels, and breakout at 130+. The stock price is hanging onto the minor resistance levels. I am not the one who worries about minor dips on hitting minor resistances. The stock has got all the numbers PAT, EPS, a good PE ratio, a better Operating profit margin ratio, but it is not a dividend payer. Who cares, as long as it delivers good numbers!

Dissecting Tech Mahindra Q3 FY'14

The book is cooked well.

These are the special recipes

1. A writeback of 226.69 Cr. from tax provisions carried by the erstwhile Satyam. The total provisions amount to 498.92 Cr, and suddenly the board decides that 272.23 Cr. is enough to be carried further as tax provisions. Why now?

2. A writeback of 120 Cr. on provisions for contingencies carried by erstwhile Satyam.Why now?

Euphemistic Answer : Professional Advice.
Reality : Q3 is not that good.

Here is the dissection

Operational Income : 4898.55 Cr - A sequential growth of 4.57%

Profit from Ops : 996.68 Cr. - 0.78% sequential growth

Forex Loss : 141.44 Cr. - Loss widens big time sequentially as against 26.06 Cr
This creates a hole in EBITDA : 927.37 Cr. down by 7.5% :) Now you know the reason for the special recipe!!

Add the 120 Cr. as a writeback/exceptional income. Please remember that this is only notional, but smells good :) !

And then the tax is 253.05 Cr. Now we have the writeback on tax provisions of around 226.69 Cr. This is the fizz. All empty calories! And this aided in pumping up the results straight at 1009.82 Cr.

And the actual PAT is 663.13 Cr (+- 20 Cr), which is actually down by 7.7%

But who really cares about what is inside?

Disclosure : I am long on TechM.

Rock steady! Roll and Roll!

A scintillating performance this week from my beloved stock TechM. Almost all analysts have come inline with their findings, that TechM is a Gem-in-making after MSAT merger. Up almost 4% yesterday and is already up 4% while I write this down. Two more Quarters with optimal results, should make Techm part of the biggies. I am still holding on to the stock, and will do for another two quarters.

Another news that made headlines is Pfizer+wyeth takeover, both are trading ex-dividend, after announcing a hefty special dividend.
You could watch pfizer, who is gonna be a heavy heavy weight after wyeth merger. I have thrown my crumbs on Pfizer at 1150s. Will wait for the official announcement to make a big entry.

Another stock worth notice is Helios & Mattheson.. Ran up quite a bit till 118. Now trading at 112. The management has announced interim dividend of Rs 5, and it would be trading ex-dividend on february. Strategy would be to accumulate on dips till mid of Jan. Short term traders can exit before ex-dividend. For longies, this is a very good stock worth investing. I am invested in it.

Grammatik lernen : perfekt

Perfekt:
********

Hilfsverb + .. + partizip II

Das Hilfsverb wird konjugiert und zeigt die Person an.
Das Partizip II ist unveränderlich und schließt den Satz ab.

Das Perfekt mit dem Hilfsverb "haben" bilden :

* Alle verben mit Akkusativ ergänzung.
S + Hilfsverb + O + partizip II

* Alle reflexive verben
S + Hilfsverb + relexive. pronomen + mittelfeld | partizip II

* alle Modalverben als Vollverb

Das Perfekt mit dem Hilfsverb "sein" bilden:

1 Change of location

Beispiele :
Unser zug ist heute mal wieder zu spät angekommen
Gestern sind wir mit dem auto nach Ulm gefahren

2. Change of state

Beispiel :
Ich bin heute Morgen sehr früh aufgestanden

Partizip II
***********

1. Regelmäßige verben

KOnjugation : Für regelmäßige Verben, bleibt das Stammwort

Regeln zum Partizip bilden :
ge + Stammverb + t

* trennbare verben : präfix + ge + Stammverb + t
präfix + ge + Stammverb + en

* untrennbare verben : präfix + Stammverb + t


2. Unregelmäßige verben

Konjugation : In Umlaut auf den Vokal der Stamm Wort
In Endungen an den Stamm Wort

Regeln zum Partizip bilden : Kompliziert
* unregelmäßige Verben: ge + Stammverb + en
ge + perfekt-Stamm + en

Über den Urlaub

Vokabelliste:

protestieren - to protest
abgestürzt - had crashed ( stamm : abstürzen - to crash)
Augenblick - instant, moment
geschrieben - written ( stamm : schreiben - to write)
heilige Dreifaltigkeit - Holy Trinity
getan - done ( stamm : tun - do)
gehalt - salary
gemästet - fattened ( stamm : mästen - fatten)
Aufenthalt - stay
ermöglichte - enabled
gefahren - Driven, took ( stamm : fahren - drive)
gebunden - bound ( stamm : binden - join, connect)
besucht - visited ( stamm : besuchen - visit)
angefangen - started ( stamm : anfangen - start)
gegangen - walked ( stamm : gang - walk, stride)
malerischen - scenic, picturesque
schneebedeckten - snowy
freitragende Brücke - Cantilever Bridge
fotografiert - photographed ( stamm : fotograpfieren - take photos)
gebrochen - broken ( stamm : brechen -- break)
angerufen - called ( stamm : anrufen -- call over phone)
versichert - insured ( stamm : ver-sicher-en - insure)
übersetzen - translate

Geschichte :

Mein laptop begann zu protestieren, and dann plötzlich ist es abgestürzt. Es tut weh, wenn mehrere Stunden harter Arbeit geht weg in einem Augenblick! Dann hatte ich um meine blog neu geschrieben! Schon gut!


Danke an die heilige Dreifaltigkeit( nicht die christlich, aber die beliebteste - Procrastination, Unaccountability and irresponsibility - tut mir leid :( Ich bin ausländer!), wurde meine Arbeit nicht getan, und Ich musste in Stuttgart für einen monat länger bleiben. Ich war glücklich, dass mein Gehalt wurde gemästet, aber..., noch einen monat, um meine Liebe zu sehen.

Mein längerer Aufenthalt ermöglichte mir, für eine weitere Tour zu planen mit meinen Freunden, die Neuschwanstein Burg zu besuchen.

Um 07:00, wir sind mit dem ICE-zug am HauptbahnHof gefahren. Nach eine Stunde hatten wir Ulm erreicht, als hatten wir einen anderen zug nach Füssen gebunden. Um 10:00, hatten wir einen anderen zug nach Füssen gebunden. So hatten wir zwei Stunden, um in Ulm verbringen.
Dort hatten wir das Albert Einstein Memorial und der Ulmer Münster besucht. Dann wir in den anderen zug nach Füssen angefangen.

Nach drei Stunden um 13:00, hatten wir Füssen erreicht. Wir konnten vom Bahnhof zum Schloss gegangen, aber wir waren sehr müde :(.
So, wir sind mit einen Bus um die Burg gefahren. Nach fünf Stunden mit dem zug, hatten wir unseren ziel erreicht!!!

Die Burg war sehr schön mit seinen malerischen Wasserfällen und schneebedeckten Alpen. Dann hatten wir die Marienbrücke hinter der Burg besucht. (Sie haben zu glauben, dass es sich um eine freitragende Brücke. Physik!!! Physik!!! Ja, im Land der Einstein!) Ich hatte das Schloss von der Marienbrücke fotographiert. Der Blick auf das Schloss von der Brücke war sehr schön.


Die Unfall :

Dann erreichten wir den Fuß der Wasserfälle. Ich begann klettern ein Fels und erreichte die Spitze. Meine Freunde hat ein Foto von mir über den Felsen. Dann kletterte ich den Felsen hinab, und das war nicht so einfach. Der Fels war so rutschig, und ich rutschte die Felsen. Ich wusste nicht, das würde mich 240 € kosten, wie der Untergang hatte mein ipod gebrochen.
Mein ipod war versichert, so hatte ich der Versicherung angerufen, um den Unfall zu melden.

Dann um 04.00, wir sind zurück zu Stuttgart begonnen.

Ich finde es ein wenig schwer zu übersetzen, ich bin Ausländer! Hier ist die Originalversion in englischer sprache.

Urfassung : http://deepuscandybox.blogspot.in/2006/11/god-damn-my-machine.html

Dissecting Q2 - FY'14 of Tata Steel

Not bad. Cons. Net sales at 36,369.64 Cr(7.3% growth YoY) with an eps of 8.98 ( Last year Q2 was negative, lets not compare this), makes Tata Steel an attractive turnaround story. The PAT at 916.77 cr can be mostly attributed to its Indian operations, and streamlined consolidation of its European operations. It has turned profitable from last quarter, and the Q2 result shows that the revenue is steady. This is quite a sign, and the market has recognized it two months ago. It has already run from the lows of 260, and we are now standing 100 Rs. up. The steam is building up, and the cyclical-trend, favouring the metals sector, should help it sustain above 400 comfortably by year end.

Quoting around 370 as I write, and one can enter on dips.

Overestimated a bit on TechM Q2 PAT

My estimations on TechM Q2 were bit above the topline, but the results were on track. The market reaction was splendid with a whopping Rs.100 up in a day.

I am upbeat on TechM, as now is the time to run fast. Can book partial profit around 1900 or the end of this year, whichever comes first.

And we have Alembic Pharma confidently marching ahead!... Find some dips to enter.

And I am in a dilemma on Ahmednagar Forgings. Booked profit at 99 last week. The tide is yet to lift it. WIll re-enter on next dip.


Findings : NALCO (Q2 rose 37 times the last year), Shalimar paints (pretty cheap), Suven Life sciences ( pretty cheap among the peers). Can go long.
I am invested in Shalimar paints. Will find dips to enter both NALCO and Suven.

Tech Mahindra Q2 Estimation and some other reco's

The following were the contracts signed during this period:

A five year term contract with UBS
A multi million dollar deal in Latin America with Schahin petro and one bank
A five year contract with BASE - Belgium
An outsourcing contract with Volvo

Recent:
Fulton school
Bosch

15% up in revenue is the bottomline
PAT should be kiss/breach the 10%

Let`s see, in three more hours

As I said in my previous post, Alembic Pharma continues its march up , quoting 210 as I write this, a whopping 70 Rs up from my reco. price.

And I have two more findings, an they are Dishman Pharma and Ahmednagar forgings. Their fundamentals are intact and I am relying on the cyclicals trend, to push'em up.

Hindalco, is still struggling in the range of 111-123, recommend to be a trader till the allegation on coal mine allocation against Birla cools off. I dont expect a resolution on the same so fast. So, ride on the trend..short at 123 and buy at 111, if both happens.

Dissecting TCS Q2 FY'14 results

Again the forex gains played up heavily on TCS results by almost 25% of the Q2 standalone net. The irony and a sad fact. Ok, lets make some money! An exemplary result by beating the anal**ysts' estimations.

An operational Net of 5486 odd Cr. and an eps of 28.6 clearly makes TCS a much safer bet till the bubble bursts!

Considering the 3297 Cr of standalone operational Net last quarter as a base, the Q2 result firms the TCS position as nummer eins, numero uno in the IT sector.

The situation is so rosy for IT sector and this affirms my stand on TechM. I am expecting a scintillating performance by Anand Mahindra & Co and an interim dividend announcement on the D-Day (yet to be announced, and I hate this delay.


Certainly, it is a perfect foil for an aggressive intraday trader on thursday, and a much safer investment till next quarter...I feel this'll continue till the next election as our rulers are finding innovative ways to bring down the rupee value.

Disclosure: I don't have any holdings on TCS, as I feel the bubble got so big. I am waiting for the burst/leakage to enter.

Some more calls, a bit late!

Ya, there was a silent buildup in the real estate last two weeks, particularly Anant Raj( 41 to 51 in a week) and Unitec (16 to 19).

I may enter Anant Raj, as it has broken the resistance of 50 and was traded well above the 5 day moving average. I may sit on the fence of Unitec, and watch a while.

And TechM has proved my conviction. Will be riding on it till this year end. And the Q2 FY14 result, which may be tintillating, owing to the real muscle power of the combined(MSAT + TechM) Entity, and sadly to the forex gains.

I am disclosing one more entity from my watchlist, Alembic pharma..., has made a run from 130s to 170s. One can enter on correction below 150.
Pros : Strong fundamentals, clear balance sheet, and streamlined growth makes it a better prospect for a long term investment. Will follow up with stats on the same.

The handle is too long!!!

What a blasting opening! TechM breached 52 week highs quite comfortably and we see buy orders racing ahead of sell orders!! TechM is clearly on the hump of a chargin bull!!

The chart says it all.. A cup formation in 2008-2009, deep enough to absorb all the liquid that may fill into it, and followed by a long handle that stretches till early 2013!!! And MSAT merger with TechM last month triggered the momentum. First Goldman Sachs went bullish last week, and now Mr. Stanley signals to buy. I'd love to hear one more from CRISIL!...Let us see.. One thing is that the chart would have been recognised by even a kid, and I wonder why it took so long for'em to recognize it, may be the pending merger with MSAT would have kept them on the fence. Whatever, it is always fine when the portfolio looks dark green, though it may sound a little selfish when the rise in TechM is also aided by the tumbling Rupee!... Let us consider it in a positive way, a hedging tool against the tumbling Rupee, YEah!...

Other ideas, overseas... Vodafone may sell its 45% stake on verizon wireless and it looks for a price of 130 Billion dollars!
Log term bet.. is ..Alcatel Lucent! It is so cheap!... When China mobile gives the order to ALU for its light radio micro cellular network solution, who knows! I am yet to open my overseas trading account!

And in domestic, SBI is in buy territory, I may still wait for a price of 1475+.. It'll sure happen...

Me, Myself and TechM!!!

Three rode a roller coaster this week, particularly TechM.
And yes, Tata steel did more than survive, 27% up this week, after all it has some quality stuff.. Sure does Hindalco! Yet, I couldn't convince myself to divest TechM.. and here is the proof...almost 8% up today.

Though, I didn't get much out of the rise, I did protect my previous earnings.. The swing in TechM was so wide with a span of Rs.100 this week, owe it to the rupee slumber. TechM is my long, and I didn't want to book my profit now, so I did hedged trading this week. Maintained intraday shorts till today and held my longs firmly. I burnt myself badly yesterday. My predictions went wrong and my shorts got hit.

Held on to my longs today without intraday hedging, and that worked!! If it didn't I would have earned only for my broker and none for me!

And now, TechM is clearly in an unchartered territory, closed @ 1271.90, with a pending buy order at 1266.. and that was a 52 week high!! So, I may resume my hedging on monday after 11 AM.


I'll watch out TechM movements, and may sell 30% of my TechM holdings if the price crosses 1450.. Tata Steel is sure in the pipeline, and if there is a dip, will surely jump in.. and I am gonna sit on the fence of Banking Sector..SBI looks attractive below 1530..Let's see!

Dissecting Tech Mahindra MSAT combined earnings

TechM has delivered and the numbers hit the spot.

The net income of 3552.88 cr met my expectations of 3500 cr +- 100 cr (please refer my previous post), and Wow! almost on the spot!
Employee benefit expenses are 1677.92 cr almost met my expectations of 1700 cr. I can't believe it and Wow! again!
Merger, travel and other expenses are 1118.25 cr. and the number sadly exceeds my expectation of around 900 cr. This is an area of improvement.

And finally the standalone net is 598.87 cr!!! OMG! OMG! My expectations were 600 cr. with allowable deviation!

A pessimistic approach sees the Forex gain due to the rupee slumber and the other income ( may be interest from the MSAT cash reserves!), and if we negate that amount of 252.65 cr., we may fairly now! say that th combined entity has managed to stay afloat...

And from the consolidated result numbers, this Q's eps stands at 29.63 and is a better number!!! My conviction is stay put, if your risk capability is very low, yes!! Tata Steel has started showing some survival ability, it is quite risky to enter now, that was how MSAT happened to me.

And Hindalco results look promising, and the price looks attractive from valuation perspective!.. let's see tomorrow how both Tata steel and Hindalco react!!

Conviction is to use the spare money to enter Tata Steel/Hindalco... and I have none! I have to divest in TechM! Let me see tomorrow!
I'll dissect Tata Steel and Hindalco numbers only after the market reaction tomorrow.